A rapid ending to El Niño underway; La Niña development may lead to expanding heat
Exploring the impact of transitioning from El Niño to La Niña on summer growing season weather conditions across North America.
In early summer, a significant portion of the country, particularly focused on the Heartland, will endure prolonged periods of hot weather, with temperatures persisting well above seasonal norms. Stress on man, beast and row crops will be become even more evident especially where soil moisture shortages continue in some fields.
Early summer rainfall patterns will maintain a focus on deeper tropical moisture across the far southern Plains through the southeastern states, heightening the potential for tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Across the nation's midsection from the Plains to the Corn Belt, precipitation levels will generally range from near normal to slightly below seasonal averages. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest can expect to remain under an active weather pattern throughout early summer.
Regarding mid-summer temperatures, the usual "Hot Dome" of high pressure over the nation's heartland is expected to weaken somewhat. Readings are still projected to be a few degrees above average, but the intense heat periods are expected to diminish temporarily. Conditions will normalize particularly in the far eastern Corn Belt and across the deep southeastern United States.
Looking ahead to mid-summer rainfall, ongoing active tropical weather is expected to concentrate over the southwest Atlantic and/or the far eastern Gulf of Mexico, resulting in significant rainfall and a wetter pattern across the eastern quarter of the country. Normal precipitation is anticipated over the rest of the Corn Belt and much of the northern and central Plains. It's important to note that mid-summer rains typically vary widely in scope, coverage, distribution, and amounts. Additionally, minimal monsoon moisture is expected across the southwestern United States.
Temperatures for the late-summer periods reflect a rapid strengthening of the large-scale upper-level high, “The Heat Dome” over much of the Plains and Corn Belt. Late-season heat wave weather conditions are expected. Areas with insufficient soil moisture may experience deteriorating crop conditions, increased stress on livestock, and a swift depletion of topsoil moisture levels. Temperatures in the western United States are expected to fall below seasonal averages.
The late-summer outlook for rainfall is bleak, with minimal organized moisture anticipated across much of the Corn Belt. Further stress may be evident in late-planted varieties and worsening soil moisture levels is also expected. There is also a risk of drought development and increased dry conditions in parts of the Heartland. Meanwhile, tropical weather activity will remain active in the Gulf states and far southern Plains. There are indications that some of this tropical moisture could move northward into the central Plains and southern Corn Belt by early autumn.
The late-summer outlook for rainfall is bleak, with minimal organized moisture anticipated across much of the Corn Belt. Further stress may be evident in late-planted varieties and worsening soil moisture levels is also expected. There is also a risk of drought development and increased dry conditions in parts of the Heartland. Meanwhile, tropical weather activity will remain active in the Gulf states and far southern Plains. There are indications that some of this tropical moisture could move northward into the central Plains and southern Corn Belt by early autumn.
As the El Niño pattern dissipates across North America and swiftly gives way to a La Niña weather pattern by mid to late summer, let's explore how this transition will impact weather conditions during the summer growing season.
About the Author(s)
You May Also Like